Weekly Semiconductor (SOX) Analysis

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) so far hasn't been able to rise above its 61.8% Retracement Level near 493 as this has been acting as a major resistance level but the SOX has been able to hold support just above the 463 area.  The 463 level is a critical support area as it corresponds to the SOX's 40 Weekly EMA (blue line) and is also near its upward sloping trend line (brown line) originating from the July low.  In the weeks ahead there are two possible outcomes for the SOX which will likely have an impact on the Nasdaq as well.  If the SOX is able to rise above its 61.8% Retracement Level near 493 then I expect a move up to its 76.4% Retracement Level near 520 which would have a positive impact on the Nasdaq.  Meanwhile if the SOX were to break below the 463 level then I would expect a drop back to around the 443 level (point A) which is where it found support at in October.  If the SOX were to fall back to the 443 level at some point this would likely have a negative affect on the Nasdaq.   

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